Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(10:34) 2-A.Lee punts 64 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 21 for 10 yards (30-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model