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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to LV 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model