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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard left tackle to PIT 15 for 5 yards (97-C.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model