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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to LV 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model