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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model