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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.55 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model