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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.45 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model