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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 52

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model