4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model