4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 17 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model