Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 59-A.McClellan, Center-92-J.Denney, RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Humber at MIA 24. 50-R.Humber to MIA 18 for 6 yards (38-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.07 EP
76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model