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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 14

New England Patriots 27 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(6:50) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model