Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 54

New England Patriots 27 – Miami Dolphins 28

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 8 for no gain (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.90 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model