Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 6-M.Wile punts 38 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for no gain (30-C.Ham; 42-B.Gedeon). PENALTY on SEA-35-M.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.60 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model