Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 98

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(8:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SEA 41, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-24-S.Luani. Ball illegally touched at SEA41.

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.45 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 98, worth -6.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model