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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-K.Rudolph (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model