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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to MIN 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model