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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP