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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to MIN 39 for 2 yards (42-B.Gedeon, 54-E.Kendricks). PENALTY on MIN-98-L.Joseph, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 39.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model