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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to MIN 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model