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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 18

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas to IND 12 for 6 yards (50-A.Walker; 26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.07 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model