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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.44 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP