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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. PENALTY on IND-26-C.Geathers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model