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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 32-T.Mathieu.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model