Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

(9:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model