4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 38

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP