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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 45

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP