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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model