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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 25 for 6 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model