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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to BAL 34 for 2 yards (55-T.Suggs).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model