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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to KC 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-T.Hill to KC 19 for 7 yards (48-P.Onwuasor; 37-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model