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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP