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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to GB 27 for 8 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.60 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model