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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 34 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 6-J.Scott punts 20 yards to ATL 46, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model