Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 34 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(2:54) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to ATL 32, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.67 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model