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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.62 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model