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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 32

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model