Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

(14:01) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to GB 25, Center-46-J.Condo, downed by ATL-36-K.Ishmael.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model