4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to PHI 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 16 for 4 yards (41-D.Johnson; 16-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model