Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 75

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 25

(10:11) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 27 for 1 yard (35-M.Nicholson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model