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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.33 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP