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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 29

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:19) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.78 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model