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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 1
Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(4:08) 33-J.Adams up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (53-Z.Brown).
The Three Options
GO
+4.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.58 EP
KICK
+2.01 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
