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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to WAS 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model