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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 19 – New York Jets 22

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model