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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 36

New York Jets 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model