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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 21

New York Jets 19 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model