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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 6 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NYJ 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model