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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 40

New York Jets 16 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(13:57) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model