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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 25

New York Jets 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model